Market Timer ~ Buy and Sell Signals for ETFs

Anticipation: Instead of blind optimism, accept the season we're in. Understand the overall trend so you know how to react: If you try to plant seeds in winter, nothing will grow. Decide to find a way to take advantage of the reality of the situation. -Tony Robbins

A Sell Signal is triggered by the RSI|SMA (potential down-trend) and MACD|EMA (confirmed down-trend) crossover. Stop Loss order updates are calculated -1.0% from the last closing price for all positions when the Market Timing Model (VTI) closes with a higher High Red Candlestick value after a RSI or MACD crossover. I keep a sell stop/limit order (good-till-cancel) in place at all times and all stop order positions are updated when the market closes with a read candlestick. Note: one may take profits at any time. However, to maximize gains, I prefer to let all positions run until they stop out. I don't use trailing stops. Leveraged ETFs will stop out before non-leveraged ETFs because they use same -1% exit from the last closing price.

Market Timing: It is best to analyze and update the Stock Market Timing result after the market closes, especially when the market exhibits turbulent ups and downs. A signal is triggered by RSI|SMA and MACD|EMA crossovers. This approach has a about a 90% success rate - it's a guideline and prudent traders should spread buying stocks over a few business days to monitor how the trend develops.

Market Timer Model Components: My stock market timing signal model is simple and consists of 4 ingredients. Namely,  Total Stock Market + Fibonacci Retracement + MACD|EMA + Wilders RSI|SMA.

1. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of the overall stock market and includes large-, mid-, and small-cap equity diversified across growth and value styles.
2. Fibonacci Retracement to call support and resistance level.
3. Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) | Exponential Moving Average crossover to call confirmed buy and sell sell signals.
4. Wilder's Relative Strengths Index (RSI) | Simple Moving Average crossover to call potential up or down trends.

Funding the Portfolio and Portfolio Risk Management click for details

Contra ETFs: when buying inverse ETFs, I ignore the volatility index, usually is above 25 anyway. The maximum inverse (ULTRA) ETF investment for each portfolio is does not exceeds 50% of the total allocation.

Buy Stop/Limit Order: when I get a buy signal, I place a buy stop/limit order, because, I want to buy only if the stock trades higher the next day as compared to the last closing  price.

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